Expecting the Worst

Im thinking there are no laws of reality. Only traditions of reality. The world is an abstract construction. God's ever mutating piece of art. The laws of probability exist but our own expectations can change them. Since there are an equal number of optimists and pessimists, the overall probabilities are upheld. But individually we can change our luck. Im talking about expecting the worst possible card to come increasing that likelihood. Lets say I run bad for a while but within the laws of probability. Since Im the pessimistic type Im likely to get discouraged quicker and start to believe the cards are against me. There are several new age spiritual books that talk about being able to manifest things through thought. Maybe the most well known is The Secret. Many theorize that fear of something increases its probability of happening. Maybe its a built in punishment for lack of faith. I believe this stuff but I cant seem to do anything with it. I forget to be positive. TJ Cloutier talked about people changing their games but that its very rarely truly successfully changed because people tend to revert back to playing how they are naturally programmed. Thats why few people are naturally Tight and Aggressive players. Because these are conflicting natures (I think that's a Sklansky observation). Naturally tight people tend to be conservative. Naturally aggressive people tend to be risk takers. Logically interweaving these is a conscious choice usually caused by many sessions of losing poker and learning some very hard lessons. So back to my point. Its hard to change my nature from pessimist to optimist. In the book Conversations with God, God basically tells the guy he can have anything he wants by deciding it and then believing it will happen. The problem is that we rarely ever believe something can happen in that way or we choose a path to what we want and quickly get distracted. The trick is to keep choosing and re-choosing it with every fiber of our being and keep trying to believe it and trying to remove all doubt that it will happen. The faith of a mustard seed can move a mountain but its hard to truly have faith that the mountain will actually move. I bet a mustard seed of doubt is all it takes too. Why am I droning on about this? I keep playing people who are just terrible at heads up poker. I have them green tagged as players I want to play. Yet they are winning. They seem to catch every card they need and/or win all the coolers. I said "they seem" which is just to say they win way more than their fair share. I had this feeling before I moved from full ring to headup. Maybe switching games gave me a boost of optimism and I felt the benefits of that and when the laws of variance swung low I moved back to my natural way of thinking and now Im experiencing the consequences of that. The three games in a row I lost last night force me to step back and figure this shit out. Obviously from a poker theory all I can do is get my chips in ahead. But if thats not working I have to believe there is a deeper reason for what is going on. Im going to give this some serious thought and I will come up with a plan of action other than just trying to think positively. Im sure there are some daily drills which can keep my mind right for the long haul. Im sure the problem is that its hard ot stay positive when you are pissed off at the 2 outers you get crushed by on the river. Ok thats enough philosophy. Oh and I also have another conspiracy theory that once I green flag someone Full Tilt has it written in their program keep them in the action. Yeah I know that is very far fetched but its just how my mind works.

Hit or Miss

So last night was my regular Monday night game. Lotsa new faces for the $40 tournament. One guy who busted out and left made the cardinal sin of driving through the grass. Not only did he drive through Dave's grass but he drove through the wettest part of the yard leaving a giant rut and the neighbors lawn too. And he ran over a landscape light. It was quite the topic for pretty much the rest of the night. As far as the tournament went, I played very few hands but at least I played them poorly. My first significant hand I raised with 76off which is pretty unusual for me but I got 4 callers so when I blanked the board I didnt try to take the pot. I turned an open ended str8 draw and bet it. I got called. Then I check folded the river and was shown the 2,3 for an even lower missed str8 draw. I went out by getting moved to a new table and the first hand raising with AK utg and calling all my chips to a reraise from KK. Once again my blog was an occasional topic of discussion. In fact I had one friend on the phone with a guy who runs a different game explaining to him who the fuck I was. No big deal or anything they just wanted to know who was writing it. Kooky.

The cash game was pretty tame. There was a guy who was new who bought in for basically a double stack which propted our local self-made-thousandaire to buy up to equal his stack and say something about needing to have the biggest dick on the table. My first real hand Im on the button with AQ and Mr. New Guy Double Stack limps UTG and it folds around to me. I make it $12ish and he calls. The flop is AKQ so I continuation bet $20ish. He calls. Im thinking he has a worse Ace or maybe a King and a gutshot. The turn is another King. He checks, I check. If I bet he can take me off the hand so easy but by checking Im just begging to be tested. I can call a reasonable bet on the end with the current size of the pot. The river bricks and he bets out the pot. I dont like it because I dont know him at all. Generally when people check big hands to me hoping that I will bet for them and I just check behind they like to over bet the river just because they are pissed the pot isnt as big as it could be and they want to get a few extra bucks for their monster. I tanked and looked at him and finally decided that since he bought in for double stack he may have been planning on slinging the chips around. I knew he could make that bet with a naked Ace which we would be chopping. He looked comfortable. He was shuffling his checks with no problem. I guess if he was strong he may have tried to give me a weak tell and look very uncomfortable. I finally make a crying call and he mucks pure air. He got himself a lot more action after that and a couple hours later left way down. I never got to participate in the feeding frenzy. I didnt pick up any hands. In fact I should just stop because the rest of the night was pretty boring. Mostly I would call and miss or I would raise and hit my Ace and win it on the flop. I limped and folded to a raise quit a bit. Rarely regretted it. I limped once and flopped open ended str8 flush draw. I bet $15 (about the pot) and got 1 caller. The turn paired the high card on board. I wanted to bet enough to get a competing flush draw out. If I get raised I would just have to decide if I wanted to gamble. So I bet the pot which was about $40. I get a call but it seemed like an over pair type call or a second pair. Well the river pairs the second highest card. I have 7 high out of position. I give up. Fucker has a flush draw (and bottom pair). I played that hand the way I would normally play a big made hand like a set against a bunch of limpers. If I just have the flush draw or just the str8 draw I dont play it like that. Oh well.

I so decided to cash out and leave on time. I was only up $60 in the cash game. I figured if I stayed and hit big I would feel too guilty to leave and I also didnt want to limp and call away $50 trying to hit a flop before I went home. I got a big family week coming up so I would rather not have a fresh bad memory of me pushing my Jacks into Kings.

Oh yeah and RDG aka LoveShack apparently made a coupla final tables in Tunica. I saw one 10th place. I see where Chris Moneymaker and Chad Brown are 1 and 2 going into the final table today. I wonder if its easier being a celeb. Maybe you dont get put to the test quite as much because people are scared you are going to pick them off or put them back to the test.

Poker is Hell

Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Cooler. Fuck me. I dont wanna talk about it. Im down to fucking $198. I was at $750+ a pretty short time ago (a week to the day actually). A month of playing blown to fuck because I run bad and move up anyway. It's hard out here for a degenerate. I just lost $200 on a 1/2 full ring game. I laughed pretty hard when I went broke. Typical. I had my whole online account amount on 2 tables. So fucking stupid. Now Im back to the $10 level. I dont really want to grind $10 SnGs. Maybe I should just move down to $5 SnGs and make a 30 buyin rule for myself. Self torture as punishment.

Probably Should Back Off Internet Poker for a Few

I guess Im gonna take a break from online for a few days. I played last night and lost 3 outta 4. One I lost by getting all in with JJ vs KK. My bad. The other two as usual I had them in bad shape most of the time and couldnt win a coin flip or just plain got sucked out on. I lost two allin hands with AA in the same game and I was ahead both times when the money went in. My last game I went all in with JJ after the flop and got called by K7 with no pair. I guess since the pot was big from my 3 bet preflop he decided he couldn't fold with 500 left. I had him covered but after he rivered me I only had like 300. I then put it in with A rag and got called by 10,7 and lost. I looked at my stats and I have only won one match in the last 11. I could have a better win rate if I just went all in preflop every time. I swear in probably 8 out of 10 of those matches Im feeling very comfortable most of the time and getting it in good. Because they wont die all these games are getting to the 25/50 levels. A couple got to the 40/80 level. Im down to $500 now. I got soccer and basketball seasons coming up so maybe I should just concentrate on exercising for a while. I doubt I will be able to leave it alone. My computer will certainly be calling me. Im afraid if I keep playing Im just gonna stick it all on one game.

Decided to Moderate Comments

OK I guess Im gonna start moderating comments. I didnt want to but Im a little hesitant to let openly hostile people have their say on my site. They may not be as respectful for leaving out names and places that may not want to be named in a public forum. A good example is the bar room that was named by a commenter with no tack. I dont really care if anyone thinks its because I am upset that this guy is calling me a liar and that I need to censor him because he is right. He's not but its really irrelevant. If anyone cares if I were to lie then you care too much. It would be pretty pathetic of me but obviously there are pathetic people in the world so think what you will. I just dont like having to keep on top of what is said here so much because Im nervous someone is going to say the wrong thing. I also dont want people showing up at games just because I say I play there. So please leave your comments if you have them and I promise they will be posted shortly unless of coarse I find them inappropriate. I will still post your insults and criticisms to a degree but not if you just keep saying the same stupid shit over and over. Thanks to all for reading. BTW I wouldn't mind having actual relevant posts to playing poker.

Poker Purgatory

Shit Im nose diving again on SnGs. I went from $775 to $600 in one session. Mostly from just two players who I like to play. They are very weak. They barely ever raise their button. I get them to put their money in bad a few times every game when they are low on chips and they just keep suckin out. I mean I have little green flags next to these people because I want to sit them. Now Im in poker purgatory. Thinking about where I was and how I got where Im at. Not quite hell but one more session like that and it will be bad. To quote the movie Rounders as my favorite reader has requested I do more of, " I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can't stop thinking of how I lost it." Thats poker hell. Of coarse he was talking about $30k and Im playin the kiddie games. I dont think Im gonna go crazy and play higher this time though. I think Im just gonna keep playin. Fuck it. Its not like I was cashing out anytime soon anyway. I can remember a month ago whenI was happy that I was over $200. Hell I started with $50. I can see clearly that its not me. That Im getting the best of it most of the time. I could tell you about all the coin flips I havent won and all the turn cards that have killed me but its not relevant. Some times cards run bad. Ok well I cringe to think what boring ass negative comments my stalker has for us this time. I thought it was good for the blog at first but now its just embarrassing how lame the dude is. The price of free speech I guess. Actually this post is pretty boring just on its own. I guess that ok. Its just a log of my poker play. Thats what a blog is. Short for web log. In case you didnt know that.

Played Well, Ran Good, No Complaints (except for the poots)

Finally they updated the results for the Tunica tournament at Bluff Mag (still not anything at PokerPages)

Skipped the Monday night tourney to go see a skateboard demo under the Mississippi Riv Bridge. It was fun. Food, old friends, and some sick skating. I did make it to the after tourney game though. I wonder if I have a better mind set when I skip the tournament because I dont feel like Im already 40 down.

So lets recap the action. Caught nothing for a couple of rounds except the whiff of these stanky ass farting muther fuckers which prompted me to get the floor fan out. Then I limped dark 3 times in a row and had AQ and won and KK and won and then AQ and lost. I think I tried it again a few hands later only to have 10,2 so I stopped the dark limp run.

One hand I called a small raise from a tight player and I had the A of clubs (and a 10) on an all club 10 high flop. I raised the tight preflop raiser who was continuation betting 20 and he quickly folded what surely was AK. I usually overplay AK there so Im glad he isnt me.

Once I made it 20 on button with AJ and got two callers who had limped for $2. Flop K,Q,rag and I get two checks so I bet 40 and get two calls and give up on that hand when a 10 or A doesnt come on the turn.

There was an interesting topic being discussed about how can you just limp and then call a massive over raise. I personally dont do it very often. If I limp for $2 and you make it $22 to go, Im usually either folding or raising. Unless 5 people have called and I have a hand that if it hits will be very good like a set or an Ace high flush I will usually muck (unless Im steaming). Now the guy making this observation seems baffled by the callers but he's the worst on of them all. I think they were ragging him for getting $200 in preflop with 8 high last week. Of coarse he won that hand. I also talked in a past blog about him calling my raise to $50 preflop with K7 and winning vs my QQ but I digress.

Later I pick up QQ and reraise from 12 to 60 and get put all in by the UTG limper who is the same guy from last week who did it with 99. This time its 77 and he doesnt hit a set. I woulda went full Hellmuth I think. Then I call 6 in SB with AK against the whole table and flop AAQ and make about 60 more by check raising the same guy who this hand had a Q and a short stack from the QQ vs 77 debacle. I say I check raised him but he went all-in and so did I to shut out the flush draw (which got there).

One hand I have AQ and raised to 26 from the SB to limpers (including the same guy who couldnt understand calling the over raise after you limp) and get 6 calls (he was the second caller). Flop Q87 and I check. Im not betting into 6 people with one pair. All check and a 3 hits turn so I bet 45 and get a call from the luckbox who also loves to move people like me of our winning hands. There really isnt a draw out there. I think the board was rainbow even. River is K and I check and guy chickened out of his bet because he thought I had AK and hit the riv. I probably woulda called given his willingness to bluff there in the past. He put me on AK because I checked and then put out a weak bet on the turn. I was just trying to get to the showdown cheaply and without getting trapped by someone with 87 suited or pocket 3s.

I made a straight flush and was scared I was behind. Playing 76diamonds outta position I flop a flush with 6 people in the pot. I dont want to get trapped by a bigger flush so I check and call the bet of the last guy to act. Everyone else folds. I dont want to see a diamond on the turn but it comes. 9 of diamonds on a 810Q of diamonds board. Jack of diamonds is the nuts. I check and button checks. I bet pot on the river and he folds. I played it very conservatively but I was winning at the time and I dont mind playing conservative against a loose aggresive table.

Another hand I called the flop bet in position and I made a flush when the top pair on the board paired on the turn. I was calling for my kicker to hit and then when the second Q (of my needed suit) hit I said that'll work. I got checked to. I bet half the pot and get called. The player is tight so Im sure she has a pretty good hand but not a boat yet. She checks the river and I put out a 35%ish value bet. Had she hit her kicker on the river and check raised me I coulda folded. I think she woulda bet out if that had happened though just because she wouldnt have wanted me to just check the river with a baby flush.

Well thats all the significant hands I can remember. I won more than I lost the week before which was sweet. That means I dont have to rethink the direction of my life this week. I hope I can keep this up and have a good roll going into the September Biloxi event. Weeeeeeee.